Insights
Market reports from our mortgage experts.
Oakbank is a real estate capital advisory firm based in Toronto. We originate and structure financing solutions for developers and real estate investors in the form of construction, bridge, mezzanine, and term loans.
All insights
Q2 2026 Commercial Mortgage Market Update
Q2 2026 saw stable rates and tight spreads on top-tier assets, while unsold condo inventory drove new government intervention in Vancouver and the GTA, and land/construction financing stayed selective and disciplined.
Aaron X. Sun
Q1 2026 Commercial Mortgage Market Update
Q1 2026 brought renewed uncertainty as rising oil prices pushed bond yields higher, forcing deal repricing. Lending stayed strong for top assets, but timelines stretched. Developers are returning to CMHC financing, while pre-sale and land markets remain weak despite new HST incentives.
Aaron X. Sun
Q4 2025 Commercial Mortgage Market Update
A disciplined return to fundamentals amid bond volatility, tighter credit standards, and Canada-U.S. divergence - where deals still got done, but only on today's cash flow, cap rates, and underwriting.
Aaron X. Sun
Q3 2025 Commercial Mortgage Market Update
Q3 saw renewed activity following the Bank of Canada's first rate cut, but slowing population growth, weakened condo demand, and tighter financing conditions kept overall real estate sentiment cautious.
Aaron X. Sun
Q2 2025 Commercial Mortgage Market Update
The second quarter began with central bankers on both sides of the border holding firm. The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 2.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting. Yields on 10-year Government of Canada (“GOC”) bonds edged into the mid-3% range, driven by record federal bond issuances and persistent core inflation.
Aaron X. Sun
CMHC Rental Holdback and Premiums Update
CMHC announced two key updates that are effective immediately on July 3rd 2025.
David N.H. Bell
Q1 2025 Commercial Mortgage Market Update
The first quarter of 2025 has likely added a few grey hairs to many of us—or perhaps fewer for those more follically challenged. The constant turbulence from discussions of trade wars to shifts in government leadership (with more potential changes ahead), along with a decline in residential real estate conditions, has only intensified the uncertainty in the commercial real estate market. As anticipated, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has diverged from the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy, with Canada's overnight rate now at 2.75% (Prime at 4.95%), and the USD/CAD exchange nearing historic levels. Without getting too deep into the dreaded “T” word that's been all over the news lately, the unpredictable and often spontaneous messaging around tariffs has thrown the stock markets into disarray. This has had a ripple effect on commercial real estate, with lenders tightening credit conditions and developers facing volatile material costs.
Aaron X. Sun
Q4 2024 Commercial Mortgage Market Update
Q4 2024 marked a turbulent conclusion to an interesting year in the commercial real estate business. The Canadian government's Fall Economic Statement, which revealed an unexpected $20 billion deficit in addition to the $40 billion 'fiscal guardrail,' came as no surprise. However, the resignation of Housing Minister Sean Fraser, coupled with the sudden departure of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, has left the industry uncertain about what 2025 may hold.
Aaron X. Sun
CMHC Policy Changes - November 15, 2024
CMHC announced a series of major changes that are effective immediately for November 15, 2024.
Victor P. Huynh
Q3 2024 Commercial Mortgage Market Update
Since our last update at the end of June, the Bank of Canada (“BoC”) has cut the overnight interest rate for the second time by another 25 bps. Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada also recently stated that “it is reasonable” to expect further cuts before the end of the year, with many economists expecting a 50 bps cut later this month. South of the border it also looks like a new era has started with the US Fed cutting rates 50bps in September and the relaxation of quantitative tightening as well.
Aaron X. Sun
Q2 2024 Commercial Mortgage Market Update
The long- prophesied rate cut has finally arrived. The Bank of Canada (“BOC”) cut the overnight rate in June by 25bps marking the first rate cut in over 3 years. Bond yields only dropped slightly in response as speculators already priced in a cut that had long been telegraphed by the BOC. The following week, bond yields dropped further as dovish sentiment from the US Federal Reserve increased the chance of an interest rate cut south of our border sometime this year. This news was somewhat overshadowed as receivership orders/defaults increase for many well known real estate developments across Canada. Paired with major policy changes at CMHC, market sentiment remains relatively unchanged this quarter. Given the magnitude of the changes from CMHC, this quarter's article will be a bit longer than usual, as we wanted to take the time to explain in detail some of the consequences that will arise that are not as apparent on first reading.
Aaron X. Sun
CMHC Policy Changes - June 4, 2024
CMHC announced a series of major changes today to the amortization in their Market MLI and MLI Select Program, “Use of Funds” parameters, new construction versus existing building criteria, environmental site contamination restrictions and lender correspondent status.
Victor P. Huynh
Q1 2024 Commercial Mortgage Market Update
Q1 2024 is in the rearview mirror and the main topic of conversation continues to be interest rates. Despite what seems to be ever changing predictions as to when there will be a rate cut, bond yields have remained relatively stable, as has lender sentiment on commercial real estate financing.
Aaron X. Sun
Q4 2023 Commercial Mortgage Market Update
2023 – what a year. Here at Oakbank, we believe we can speak for many of our colleagues, clients, and casual readers and say we are glad that it is in the rearview mirror. Although it was a very busy year in the mortgage world, it has hardly been an easy one. Market instability, everchanging policies, and fear have dominated the headlines making every transaction a challenging one. This all said, we have felt the winds of change are in the air over the past few months. Echoed throughout the industry has been increased borrower and lender optimism as signs point to 2024 being a year of potential recovery and at the very least, some interest rate relief.
Aaron X. Sun
Q3 2023 Commercial Mortgage Market Update
We are a few months away from closing out a tumultuous 2023 in which the mortgage landscape has changed dramatically with lender and government policy changes seemingly changing from month to month.
Aaron X. Sun
Q2 2023 Commercial Mortgage Market Update
As the summer unfolds, all eyes are still on interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada (“BOC”), and their impact and effectiveness on slowing down the economy. In this report we will outline major economic events that have occurred, and the market trends we are observing in the commercial mortgage markets throughout these changing times.
Aaron X. Sun
MLI Select Review and 2023 CMHC Operating Benchmark Updates
Today CMHC announced a series of changes to underwriting benchmarks for multi-unit properties, the post-approval amendment process, and an update to clarify the MLI Select Program.
Aaron X. Sun
Q1 2023 Commercial Mortgage Market Update
Chances are that if you're reading this newsletter, you have observed the volatility caused by the consistent news headlines this past quarter. There probably is also a strong chance that by the time you read this, there has been more news and this report may even be outdated! Such are the times in which we live in now. I'll apologize in advance for the focus on American headlines in this report, however recent news, policy changes, and decisions have had a significant effect on the Canadian mortgage landscape.
Aaron X. Sun
Q4 2022 Commercial Mortgage Market Update
The Bank of Canada's recent 50 basis point increase in the overnight rate in December 2022 has raised speculation about the potential peak of inflation and the end of interest rate increases in Canada. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve in the US has also signaled a dovish sentiment. Over the past year, the prime interest rate has risen by 2.6x, from 2.45% to 6.45%, with significant implications for commercial real estate transactions across Canada.
Aaron X. Sun
Basel III Reforms: What This Means and Why Borrowers Should Care
If you've been out in the market looking for commercial mortgage financing in the past year, especially on land and construction financing, you may have heard lenders and more sophisticated brokers talking about the incoming Basel III regulations. The following memo will aim to summarize what Basel III is, and attempt to simplify the effects it has on the Canadian commercial mortgage market.
Aaron X. Sun
Q3 2022 Commercial Mortgage Market Update
In early September, Jerome Powell came out with a contradictory phase, “Growth Recession.” This term implies that the US is facing lower GDP growth but not an actual recession, a notion that many experts are now disputing with 98% odds of a recession in the coming months. Due to a drastically falling Pound Silver, The Bank of England has also recently reversed course by re-implementing a bond buying program to restore order to the market.
Aaron X. Sun
Q2 2022 Commercial Mortgage Market Update
The Canadian mortgage market has been experiencing changes and challenges in 2022, largely due to the Bank of Canada's interest rate hike and worries of an incoming recession. In June, the Bank of Canada raised its rate by 50bps, and another 75bps increase is expected in July. As a result, economists at leading banks are predicting a larger rate hike at the next announcement, as well as continuing quantitative tightening.
Aaron X. Sun